If ducks and geese could vote, Moore would win in a waddle. But Moore's Rogers Park ward is a hotbed of development, with a diverse mix of condo conversions, new construction, housing renovation and spacious apartments near the lake. The ward has a growing population of singles and gays.
But old problems persist: Drug dealing, primarily by Jamaican gangs, especially along the Evanston border, a sluggish commercial district and a parking shortage.
Moore, a protege of Cook County Clerk David Orr, won in 2003 with 55 percent of the vote, getting just 3,693 votes. He won in 1999 with 64 percent, getting 4,122 votes, in 1995 with 69 percent, getting 4,368 votes, and his first term in 1991, getting 5,842 votes (52 percent) in the runoff. His base is shriveling.
Russ Stewart's Prediction: Don Gordon and Chris Adams are running against Moore, with Gordon backed by the ward's business community. Expect a runoff, and expect Daley to make an effort to beat the pesky Moore.
12 comments:
I left four words out of this guys predictions. I'm positive a couple of tombloggers will hunt the story down on the internet and post it on their blogs. They're pro's at that.
If it gets posted here by anyone anonymous, it will be removed. I don't believe it serves any purpose to look ahead to the run-off until after February 28th.
I encourage other's to predict here. What do you think will happen?
Alderman Moore's pal Michael Glasser hosted a Aldermanic poll on his Moore campaign funded website with a disclaimer that read, "Not scientific in any way, it may differ considerably from the actual opinion of Rogers Park residents.
When you come to find out why the poll was taken down, you'll understand why the disclaimer was made.
Rogers Park dot com's Rigged Poll
It didn't suprise me when over 1100 people voted in the rogersparkdotcom poll and Alderman Moore was leading. It didn't suprise me either that Alderman Moore had over 80% of the vote. On Sunday morning when I was alerted of the poll, it had about 155 responses. Later in the day, those number shot up dramatically.
If you saw the results after one day of polling on Michael Glasser's site, you'd wonder why any other candidates are even running. Or you'd have to wonder if any Rogers Park residents voted actually voted in the poll at all? Here's a sample of two different times I checked the poll.
8a.m. Monday
Alderman Joe Moore - (601/679) - (89%)
Jim Ginderske - (13/679) (2%)
Chris Adams - (24/679) - (4%)
Don Gordon - (29/679) - (4%)
Undecided - (11/679) - (2%)
No response - (1/679) -(0%)
5p.m. Monday
Alderman Joe Moore - (986/1181) - (83%)
Jim Ginderske - (29/1181) - (2%)
Chris Adams - (107/1181) - (9%)
Don Gordon - (45/1181) - (4%)
Undecided - (12/1181) - (1%)
No response - (2/1181) - (0%)
Well, you wonder how the website poll numbers are so un-even? According to rogersparkdotcom administation, one person's ip address accounted for over 90% of the vote.
I wonder who that ONE person was? The poll was taken down with-in a week.
I believe that poll is very cooked. Additionally, it's a good bet that most of the residents of this area don't vote in internet polls but do watch TV. I don't believe any of the internet polls reflect the voters of RP, who until now have been very apathetic.
Ever since I moved to RP in 1997, I have talked to the longterm homeowners and renters, and sensed a groundswell of animosity toward Joe Moore. These people, almost down to the last one, told me they felt that Moore had contributed greatly to the destabilization of the area that began in the late 70s, but had, they said, accelerated of late. They seemed resigned to the situation, and the overall tone was one of hopelessness. These people simply hunkered down in thier houses and improved the places and did what they could to make the neighborhood a good place, and because of them, it was by a large a good place, but with big pockets of blight and crime, that seemed to be growing.
Yet in 1999, and even more surprisingly, in 2003, Joe retained his seat and I wondered if these people had come out to vote, for the turnout was so low.
Well, thanks to Joe's own granstanding and idiotic publicity stunts, maybe more of these silent sufferers will come out to vote against him.
Moreover, a little bit of hope goes a long way to rouse people out of their apathy and restore their will to fight. Since that time, there has been an influx of newcomers, including me, who dont accept that violence and blight go with an "affordable" neighborhood.
Therefore, I believe, that since Joe's base has been eroding over the years anyway, that he will get less than 50% and there will be a run-off; and that he will be defeated in the runoff. Gordon and Adams are the two leading contenders, and the supporters of one will back the other in a runoff.
Graig:
My concearn is that the 3 other candidates running will allow joe to win barely. I pray for joe defeat if there is a run off I am sure joe will lose the Mayor wants joe out & will throw support to the candidate who will be going up one on one in the runn off vote!
Remember to vote for a change in the 49th ward
Craig, Here are my predictions for Tuesday. Please just post them under your name. If anyone knew I was predicting, I'd be fired.
Moore: - 45 percent .
Gordon:- - 39 percent.
Ginderske: - 10 percent .
Adams: - 6 percent.
I suspect turnout will be key - the larger the turnout the smaller the JM %.
Has anyone in the ward actually been watching and listening? Those that have will be anti Joe. Those that have not will believe his empty claim to be the only Democrat in the race.
I went for a walk today - there is not much involvement - not many signs - Hispanic Clark street appears to be divided between JG and DG an occasionaly CA.
The entire area between Ridge and Clark should be quickly downzoned to R1 or many of those grand old houses will be lost and that would be a shame.
I'll shut up - perhaps I should start mine own blog.
I believe Adams will pull a few more people than Ginderske. Otherwise I think the projection is on target.
Or at least I hope it is, because if you are correct that means that Gordon and Moore will run off against each other, and Moore will be a goner.
JM 40
DG 25
JG 20
ca 15
I hope all you forecasters posting here are correct. I won't venture any guesses of my own...elections bring out my latent superstitions and I'm afraid of hexing my candidate.
If you prognosticators are correct, we will have a runoff betwixt Moore and Gordon, and Moore will lose. But I'm not predicting that and I'm knocking on the hardwood floors and hanging little charms allover the place and praying (VERY uncharacteristic for me)and trying not to think about it too much.
I think (I hope) Adams does better than single digits. I too predict a runoff between Don Gordon and Mr. No Mo Foie Gras with Ginderske & Adams supporting Gordon to victory.
I hope Adams does better than single digits. I predict Gordon beats Jo Mo in April's runoff.
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