* The 49th Ward Political Guru Speaks

By Blogger Tommy (Edited for space. For some of those people who just follow the official palm card, this complex analyzes was too deep to wade through.)

Dave Fagus and I agree that political leadership is a complex subject. Mr. Fagus has recently justified his activities in terms of the ratio of races won in the last election. Let's have a close, dry look at Fagus' statistical assertion, "Our endorsed candidates won 13 of the 15 races we endorsed in; most by sizable margins."

Although Dave mentions 15 races total, I count 29 total, consisting of 21 endorsements in non-judicial elections, plus 8 judicial endorsements. The judicial endorsements I discuss below separately.

Of the 21 non-judicial endorsements, 16 were uncontested races in which it is inane for a ward-level organization to claim victory or leadership (Suppression of contests is controlled at the state or county level).

Uncontested races with Fagus organization endorsements were:

Lt. Governor: Pat Quinn
Attorney General, Lisa Madigan
Secretary of State: Jesse White
Comptroller: Daniel W. Hynes
Congress: Janice D. Schakowsky
State Central Committeewoman: Carol Ronen
State Senator: Carol Ronen (no info on David Orr's site)
State Senator: Jeffrey M. Schoenberg
State Rep.: Julie Hamos
State Rep.: Lou Lang
State Rep.: Harry Osterman (no info on David Orr's site)
County Clerk: David D. Orr
Treasurer: Maria Pappas
Assessor: James M. Houlihan
Commissioner - County Board: Mike Quigley
Commissioner - County Board: Larry Suffredin

These are qualified candidates, almost all of them are great people who should stay in office, if we're lucky. This is why they aren't being contested.
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The remaining five races with Fagus organization endorsements were technically contested. However, in 4 the results were politically preordained (Fagus organization endorsements in bold):

Governor: Rod R. Blagojevich or Ed Eisendrath
Eisendrath was literally an "also-ran" candidate, widely criticized even by supporters for not running a campaign. His plan was evidently to be the only other candidate in the race if there were an indictment against the incumbent during the primary race. Eisendrath's nonexistence left Blagojevich with no chance to explain his positions, convincingly or unconvincingly. Blagojevich didn't so much win as Eisendrath made himself lose. The Fagus organization's support could not possibly have affected this race.

Metropolitan Water Reclamation District: Three open seats, including the one won by Debra Shore.
Debra Shore received the highest number of votes of seven candidates, by far, indicating widespread support. Note: this race could arguably be placed in category three, below, since there were other candidates which were more closely spaced. However, Debra Shore's long and impressive resume suggests that the Fagus organization's endorsement was not the deciding factor.

(Full disclosure: I agree completely with the above 21 endorsements of the Fagus organization.)
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This leaves three races to discuss, one of which bore a 49th Ward endorsement:

County Board President: John H. Stroger, Jr. or Forrest Claypool
We're all at least fundamentally familiar with this race already. The Fagus organization endorsed Stroger, who won. Theoretically, the Fagus organization increased the number of votes Stroger would have received without their help.

Treasurer: Alexi Giannoulias or Paul Mangieri
The Fagus organization did not make an endorsement in this race. Giannoulias won.

I should also address Fagus' claims regarding the "unknown" candidate, Joy Virginia Cunningham, who, as the Fagus blog notes, was the President of the Chicago Bar Association in 2004-2005 and has a history of work the appellate court, IL Attorney General's office, and Northwestern Memorial Hospital. Judge Cunningham is hardly an "unknown" who would have been lost without the Fagus organization. No former president of the CBA counts as "unknown." She won handily, of course, on her own merits. More on judicial elections below.
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In statistical summary, the Fagus organization thus had only a 50% rate of success in backing winners (actually, one winner) in truly contested races. I suppose we all have our opinions pretty much set on the County Board President race. In terms of leadership, failing to make an endorsement in the Treasurer's race can hardly be viewed as a sign of strong leadership, especially when it was one of only two heavily-contested races.

I do not individually analyze the judicial races here. However, they are notoriously the worst-constructed part of the Cook County electoral system. The Cook County Democratic Party issues a slate of endorsements, many of which promote political appointees who the bar associations uniformly describe as incompetent and unqualified. The Democratic Party's slate always wins. As such, the only "leadership" that a Democratic committeeman could show in these fixed judicial races is to promote a reform of the system by which judges are elected. I can analyze the judicial races item by item if there is a real demand for it.

Another way of analyzing the above is to say that, of 30 races discussed, the Fagus organization made one or two endorsements that had any meaning, and one was for John Stroger. Make your own judgment about that one.

The purpose of holding endorsement sessions is to engage in the process of educating voters on the merits of the candidates, not guess correctly on who will eventually win.