49th Ward (East Rogers): We talk about labor being perceived as weak if their candidates don't perform well, but how about the Chamber of Commerce? They were selling wolf tickets right along with labor around the Big Box, and Joe Moore was their primary target. He looks to be in trouble, but certainly not down or out. And man, does this race rile some people up! No joke, East Rogers Parkers may be the most heated group of voters come February 27th. They care about their ward and the issues there and are passionate about making the Ward more livable. With its lakefront paths and parks, deep diversity and a great mixture of independently-owned businesses including restaurants, bars and coffeeshops, East Rogers Park should be the epitome of quality neighborhood city living, but congestion problems, lopsided rapid-fire development that has intensified those congestion problems, and call me a moron if you dare, but there is a "left" and a "right" solution to these problems. Zoning controls the size and types of developments that come in and the kind you drive out — there are people-side and a business-side solution to these problems. Moore tends towards the people-side, but that doesn't mean it sits well with all the people. He's got a major problem on his hands insofar as he has a huge target on his back — a number of activists in the ward are unhappy, and that can often counterbalance a much larger number of merely content constituents, especially in the 49th Ward, which is somewhat low-turnout as it is (about a third in 2003). This is aggravated by the fact that his biggest supporters, the progressive activist and labor communities, will be busy on their own targets and will be hard-pressed to provide on the ground support, although money should be plentiful. His opponents, the combative Jim Ginderske, the gone-a-courtin' business Don Gordon and pro-more-parking Chris Adams will overwhelm the area with anti-Joe rhetoric. Will that be enough to give them the votes to force a run-off? If so, can they knock him out when it's one-on-one, and his allies are freed up to help him out?
Blognotes: Looks like the Gapers Block is predicting Alderman Moore doesn't have 50% of the vote. What do you think?
4 comments:
Hahahaha - laughing my ass off! Here's a more objective outsider view of RP that gives a totally different view of RP than you see on this blog:
"great mixture of independently-owned businesses including restaurants, bars and coffeeshops,"
"the epitome of quality neighborhood city living"
"Moore tends towards the people-side" (not business-side solutions)
Waht do I Think? I think GB recognizes that this election is not cake walk for Moore, but given what I quote from them above, he'll probably win.
hmm...it does seem like it. I think he has us pegged right with this comment about ward residents:
"They care about their ward and the issues there and are passionate about making the Ward more livable."
This is a community not just a neighborhood. But it amuses me the way he keeps mentioning congestion. I know there are parking issues, but it's not so crowded around here in my mind.
The best way to predict the winner in any given election is to (a)look at the donations - who is receiving more donations from within the ward. Are those donations small - made by individual supporters or is the candidate reliant upon big time donors from outside the ward; and (b) who is doing more peer-to-peer contact. It's a given fact - the more people you talk to - the more likely they are to vote for you.
From their mouths to God's ears!
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