Tuesday, January 9, 2007

* The CAPS 'Shell Game' - Updated

Have you ever heard of the 'shell game' and how's played on the CTA trains? Well, if you weren't at the CAPS beat 2431 tonight, you missed out on a 15 minute lesson on how to play and lose from Lt. Wittenburg from the Chicago Police Department's - Public Transportation Section.

You also missed out on how the CAPS program plays the 'shell game' with index and non-index crime numbers too. That's right, the CAPS crime numbers are nothing more than a 'shell game'.

Here's how the CAPS 'shell game' is played.


* First: You have to play by memory and quick thinking because CAPS doesn't offer any tangible handout material to follow along.

* Second: The beat facilitator reads off a bunch of numbers real softly, almost whisper like. You need good hearing to play. The numbers always have a percentage attached at the end. This is a extra twist to the game - which makes playing extra tricky.

* Then the announcer finishes it off the number barrage by loudly proclaiming, 'crimes down' so and so percent.

* Finally, the host smiles to the crowd, looking for applause.

Take the category of murder for example. In February of 2006 Wayne Jones was murdered in beat 2431.

Yet, last night, Kevin O'Neil reported there were no murders in beat 2431.

To the casual CAPS beat 2431 meeting-goer, about 25 people on this night (including two aldermanic candidates), they were ready to take his word for these crime figures and move on. That's how the game is played. They got fooled by the CAPS 'shell game'.

But the didn't realize they had a ringer playing. See, I was waiting for this little con job Kevin was trying to hide on us. I saw where the 'shell' was hidden. I called Kevin on it and I got instant spin from all directions.

See, that's part of the 'shell game' too. Even when you think you're going to win - they've re-arranged the rules so they don't lose.

Back to the 'shell game'. CAPS beat 2431 game-show host Kevin O'Neil gives us the answer to the burning question for 2006 in beat 2431. Here it is.

Is crime decreasing or not?

Well folks, believe it or not, according to Kevin, 'Crimes down' 8.18 percent. Now guess which shell holds that number - is it index or non-index? Do we have any takers out there?

Blognotes Update: I've already gotten a couple of nasty e-mails on this story - let me clarify. To those who are going to get all 'bent out of shape' at the above post, make no mistake, the murder of Wayne Jones was no game. It was a sad and tragic beating death that no one deserved. I know that all too well. It could've been you or me.

What's really sad and disturbing is the fact the CAPS program will take a stat like murder and lose it in the system like it never existed. If they're going to do that to a murder, what about all the other crimes?

That's what we as citizens of this ward should be getting 'bent out of shape' over.

9 comments:

Ryne said...

Kevin O'neil has his head up joe moores ass, so kevin didn't know about the murder, Graig crime is down because our alderman told kevin crime is down, and beging the good "bitch" that kevin is the information was passed on to the people at the meeting. Just like jos wants you to know!

Ryne said...

Graig; Here is an interesting press release from god old joe.


Moore Urges City to Force Development of Vacant Site at Howard and Ashland
Dear Neighbor,


Below is a press release from DevCorp North, the economic development corporation for Rogers Park, announcing the City's issuance of an Request for Proposal (RFP) that will ask for proposals for commercial, residential or mixed-use developments at the former site of the Lerner Newspaper building, located on the southeast corner of Howard and Ashland.

The current owner of the property received city approval two years ago to build and townhome and condominium development on the site. Inexplicably, the owner has failed to move forward with his plans and the property continues to lay fallow.

The property falls within the Howard-Paulina TIF, which gives the City the power to acquire it through a process known as eminent domain. After consulting with the 49th Ward Zoning and Land Use Advisory Committee, I asked the City to place the property on the acquisition list, which set into motion the RFP process. After the proposals are received, I will present them to the community and together we will determine which proposal best meets the needs of the neighborhood.

While the plan and the developer are being selected, the City will attempt to acquire the property from the current owner at a mutually agreed price. If an agreement is not reached, the City will file an eminent domain action in the circuit court. The court will determine the property's fair market value. Either the City or the new developer will then acquire the property and pay the owner the court's determined price.

If you have any questions, please feel free to e-mail me at ward49@cityofchicago.org or call my office at 773-338-5796.

Sincerely,


Joe Moore
_________________________

Hugh said...

According to CeaseFire's own numbers, shootings per month in East Rogers Park are UP since they began working there in May 2004.

Check it out.

Shootings in CeaseFire Zones, 1999-2006

Rogers Park CeaseFire Zone (2422, 2424, 2431, 2432)

Jocelyn said...

I wish I had been there. They waste so much time with those statistics every meeting. They should only do the stats once a quarter- it's overkill. We have too much else to do besides listen to manipulated stats.

I be alot of people don't go because of the stats etc...

Unknown said...

Ok, lets talk about the busted window at 1406 W. Morse. Some idiot broke the window at the foot doctor's office. His two employees took up most of the meeting complaining about the police. Fact #1 The window was broken. Fact #2 A client called the Hispanic employee to tell her that the window was broke and thata police car drove by.
Fact #3 The hispanic lady, who did dont speak english very well, called 911 and they transfered her to callback. Callback does reports over the phone, when there is minor crimes and no known offender.Fact #4 Call back did the report.... These ladies then went on and on about the POD and that two other windows have been broken. The POD is not being watched 24 hours a day. The POD is not ROBO-COP. If an idiot breaks a window, nobody at callback would know there is a POD on Morse, unless the hispanic lady would have told them, which I doubt she was capable of doing in english. Yes the homicide numbers were wrong. I have found a lot of data gets mishmashed in the Cities crappy computers.

Unknown said...

Oh yeah, Craig left right after the numbers debate. He missed half the meeting. The foot doctor's ladies also left after they disrupted the meeting. So, after nearly 2 hours, I heard nothing that will help the police in bettering Morse for the citizens.

proGun said...

Water balloons, lots and lots of water balloons. Solves most every problem.
See a crime in progress splat,
meeting running a little long, splat.

Toto said...

Day 13: No endorsement

Hugh said...

Day 13: Moore apologists continue run-off prep

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